This election cycle was unlike anything we have ever seen. The Presidential race was full of twists and turns that included an unprecedented change at the top of the ticket just 107 days out from Election Day. This rollercoaster political environment presented new challenges in everything from voter communication to fundraising and we ended the cycle with one of the most shocking election results in modern history.
Despite these odds, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC), along with our many partners at the state and national levels, overcame the red wave that swept the presidential level. We emerged with hard-won victories in battleground states across the map, protecting majorities, flipping seats, and defending incumbents in a tough electoral environment. As we now prepare for one of the biggest fights of our lifetime under a second Trump presidency, there are lessons Democrats can learn from this ballot level as we chart our path forward.
Simply put, state legislatures are the only level of the ballot where Democratic power is on the rise. We hold significantly more majorities in our statehouses than the last time Donald Trump took office, and the strength of this firewall in our state legislatures has never been more important. Democrats in state legislatures will remain on the frontlines of deciding and protecting the future of economic opportunity, education, immigration, the climate crisis, fundamental freedoms, and so much more.
Our ballot level is rich in data that sheds light on voter behavior and preferences – including results from thousands of districts, millions of instances of direct voter contact between our candidates and voters, and datasets that reach beyond presidential battlegrounds. As the party committee for this ballot level, our full analysis of this cycle’s data will extend into next year and ultimately set a stronger strategy for the Democratic Party and our partners as a whole.
Rebuilding Democrats’ prospects up and down the ticket after a tough year should start with the lessons we are learning in the states.
The DLCC’s data-driven strategy identified 10 battleground states this cycle, and we stayed laser-focused on these opportunities to defend or expand Democratic power.
While we wait for complete precinct-level data to tell the full story of what happened in 2024, the data we have so far clearly indicates there was a shift this cycle with state legislative candidates performing much better in this presidential cycle than in the past. Down-ballot candidates historically have faced unique challenges and serious headwinds in any presidential year. For example, in 2020, the average contested state legislative district in our target chambers underperformed President Biden by 2.09 percentage points. This year, by focusing on the strongest tactics and best practices for down-ballot races, we closed that gap and even outright overperformed the Harris-Walz campaign in some of our targeted districts.
The DLCC is a permanent, year-round partner to state legislative caucuses and candidates and we work hand in hand to develop programs, build infrastructure, and establish and maintain best practices. This strategy has put Democrats on a trajectory of growth in the states and although our work looks different in every state, there are clear themes looking across our 2023-24 battleground states:
We know that the advantages of early investments and support cannot be replicated – early investments lay the foundation for stability as campaigns chart out their programs and plans. That’s why the DLCC deployed staff regularly and made two rounds of early battleground investments this cycle totaling more than half a million dollars to ensure that caucuses in battleground states could stabilize staffing and build their foundations.
In the most competitive chambers this cycle, the DLCC provided an early and significant degree of stability amid a turbulent political environment this year and put our candidates in the best position to take advantage of later funding from other groups.
Building internal, in-state fundraising capacity is key to increasing our party’s overall resources and ability to defend and expand Democratic majorities.
Our work to collaborate with caucus programs and implement comprehensive finance plans provides budget certainty and lays the foundation for sustainable success. This partnership has grown more robust each election cycle and is complemented by digital and online fundraising support from our in-house team to provide additional revenue streams throughout the cycle.
The results of this strategy speak for themselves: The collective fundraising of our caucus programs has surged over the last three election cycles. In 2020, the operations in target caucuses collectively raised over $90 million; in 2022, they raised over $106 million; and by 2024, they set records and collectively raised over $182 million.
While money and building infrastructure are essential, just as important is having a data-driven plan. We made strategic investments, stayed focused on tactics that worked, and avoided rolling the dice on targets where the data did not support a path to victory.
Our data so far shows we were able to improve results in our targeted districts by an average 1.48% gain compared to non-target districts – a meaningful difference given how closely decided state legislative races and chamber control were this year. The table below shows the average Democratic state legislative performance in 2024 compared to past Democratic performance. Target districts performed better comparatively than non-target districts.
Our strategy changed the outcome for majorities in at least two states—Pennsylvania and Minnesota—and prevented major losses in the Michigan House.
Democrats’ growing power in the states is critical because statehouses will be the most impactful place to launch the resistance to the Trump administration’s agenda – including Project 2025 – under a new federal GOP trifecta. State legislatures were an important counterweight during Trump’s first term, and our foundation of power has grown significantly since then.
When Donald Trump won in 2016, there were just 29 Democratic majorities in state legislatures. Thanks to a decade of hard-fought wins, this time there will be at least 39 Democratic-controlled chambers. Not only that, but Democrats have 15 trifectas now compared to just six in 2016.
This growing state power provides a firewall to safeguard against the chaos and worst policies of this new administration. If Republicans try to eradicate the Department of Education, Democrats are ready in the states to fight back and invest in public schools. If Republicans dismantle the Paris Climate Accords and eliminate the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), state Democrats will lead the charge on climate solutions. If Republicans pass sweeping attacks on reproductive care, state Democrats stand ready to fight for women and those who love them.
As we reflect on the lessons of the 2023/2024 cycle and the role of state legislatures in the fight ahead, we cannot miss a single opportunity to build Democratic power and the work has already begun.
We already have a dozen special elections on our radar in the early months of 2025. These will be among the first elections under the Trump administration and represent must-win races. That includes two key special elections in Virginia in SD-32 and HD-26 next month where our Democratic majorities hang on the line. Beyond what’s already on our radar, we’ll continue to watch the landscape in chambers with slim margins like the Minnesota Senate (1-seat Dem majority), Pennsylvania House (1-seat Dem majority), and Michigan House (2-seat GOP majority).
As we compete in upcoming special elections, we’ll also be gearing up for the 2025/2026 cycle, which provides a critical opportunity to strengthen Democratic state power under the Trump administration. Our top targets include states where Democrats have a path to victory if we secure the resources and infrastructure to compete:
The future we can win is clear: securing the DLCC’s battlegrounds by the end of the decade would put Democrats in charge of more than half the country’s economy and more than half the population, providing a powerful foundation for the Democratic agenda in the states.
State legislatures are the catalysts for lasting change, generational representative leadership, and transformative policy. This is where the bench of the Democratic Party’s future leaders is being built and where the legislation that impacts people’s day-to-day lives is being shaped. We have a critical mission to build back Democratic power through the states to defend our future.
