Even with wins at the federal level, Democratic legislative majorities in the states could be at risk if historical trends hold true
WASHINGTON — Today, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee unveiled a new memo warning Democrats of potential danger for majorities in key battleground states if resources are not raised. Historical and recent internal targeting data currently show that even with wins at the top of the ticket, Democratic legislative majorities could be at risk in Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania, as could opportunities to build power in Wisconsin, Arizona, and New Hampshire.
The memo details the threat of down-ballot roll-off, which occurs when voters cast their votes for top-of-the-ticket races but skip down-ballot candidates – a phenomenon significant enough to make or break legislative majorities in previous years. The memo underscores how this phenomenon disproportionately affects Democrats and is a major hurdle uniquely felt at the state legislative ballot level.
Overcoming the effects of down-ballot roll-off could significantly increase our chances of retaining and building new Democratic majorities. In 2022, majorities were built with seats that were won or lost by less than 100 votes. The consequences of the 2024 elections will change the landscape of freedoms and rights for tens of millions of Americans – the stakes couldn’t be higher. But there’s still a critical window to overcome the challenges posed by ballot roll-off. The DLCC and our partners are still working to fill the remaining budget gaps of more than $25M in battleground states to fund critical programs including broadcast TV, mail programs, and digital ad campaigns in key battlegrounds.
To read the full memo, click here.
Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee President Heather Williams issued the following statement:
“2024 is the most consequential election of our lifetimes, and to ensure Democrats win up and down the ballot, we must overcome the historical obstacles candidates face at this ballot level. We know ballot roll-off uniquely impacts Democrats running down-ballot, which is why raising resources in these final weeks is essential so candidates can reach and communicate with voters.”
“The rights of tens of millions of Americans rest in our state legislatures and as Donald Trump desperately tries to win back the White House, we know his MAGA allies are on the march in the states. Investing in state legislatures to build Democratic power is the strongest way to defend our future. We still have a critical window right now to influence the trajectory of this election down-ballot, but it is rapidly closing.”
The DLCC is the official arm of the Democratic Party with the sole mission of building Democratic power in the states and setting the national agenda at the state level. Over the last decade, we have fought cycle-over-cycle to gain a dozen new legislative chamber majorities and we are leading the effort to bring national attention and investment to our ballot level. State legislatures are the building blocks of our democracy and have the closest connections to Americans’ day-to-day lives. From protecting fundamental freedoms and voting rights to growing the middle class, the DLCC and state legislators are moving the Democratic agenda forward and shaping the future of this country.
###
