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WASHINGTON — Last week, the DLCC unveiled a new memo warning about the potential risk to Democrats’ chances in key battleground states as they fight to win and defend key state legislative majorities. The memo highlights research on the challenge of ballot roll-off – when voters don’t vote all the way down the ballot – alongside historical and recent internal targeting data that shows Democratic legislative majorities and flip opportunities could be at risk unless key budget gaps for the DLCC and our partners in the states are filled. With fundamental freedoms and our democracy on the line this November, the results of these close state elections will shape the future of the country.
Check out some recent coverage of the memo:
POLITICO: Democrats warn these races you aren’t watching are in jeopardy
- Democrats running for state legislative seats are warning that they need money, fast — or they could be doomed on Election Day. Even as Vice President Kamala Harris has injected new energy into down-ballot races, those running in oft-overlooked state races are urging fellow Democrats not to take that perceived momentum for granted.
- The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the party’s main group focused on state legislatures, is sounding the alarm on a fundraising gap that it says requires millions more dollars to close… “Our internal data suggests we may be on an eerily similar trajectory to the 2020 election outcomes — when Democrats narrowly won the White House and took full control of Congress, yet lost more than 100 Democratic legislative seats and two chamber majorities in the states,” the memo says.
- “We have to perpetually challenge ourselves to advocate in a noisy donor environment where there are lots of opportunities and lots at stake,” said DLCC President Heather Williams, adding that they still have a “ways to go” to get donors to recognize that they can invest in both the presidential races and down-ballot ones.
Salon: “Stakes couldn’t be higher”: Democrats warn their majorities are at risk in swing-state legislatures
- In a memo released Thursday, the DLCC said that even success at the top of the ticket might not stave off the loss of hard-won majorities in Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania, nor guarantee victory in Wisconsin, Arizona and New Hampshire, where Democrats are hoping to win majorities for the first time in years.
- “The consequences of the 2024 elections will change the landscape of freedoms and rights for tens of millions of Americans — the stakes couldn’t be higher. But there’s still a critical window to overcome the challenges posed by ballot roll-off,” the memo said, referring to the tendency of some voters to “roll off” the rest of the ballot after filling out the races near the top.
National Journal: DLCC Warns Downballot Races Are In Jeopardy
- In a memo, the DLCC “says its fundraising—less than four weeks out from Election Day—is still far short of its $60 million election budget.”
- THE WISHLIST. “The group says its partners in the states also need another $20 million for television advertising; $4 million for mailers; $2 million for texting and digital; and $200,000 for canvassing. Without that money, the committee warns, wins at the federal level could still come with a slew of losses down-ballot.”
- WARNING SHOT. ‘‘Our internal data suggests we may be on an eerily similar trajectory to the 2020 election outcomes—when Democrats narrowly won the White House and took full control of Congress, yet lost more than 100 Democratic legislative seats and two chamber majorities in the states,’ the memo says.”
Huffpost: Fundraising Gap Could Cost Democrats Down-Ballot Races, Group Says
- The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is sounding the alarm on a fundraising gap that could imperil the party’s ability to keep Republicans out of state governments, according to a memo first published by Politico.
- “Even in a scenario in which Democrats at the federal level win battleground states by several percentage points, both our historical and current internal targeting data show that Democratic legislative majorities could be at risk in Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania, and our goals for building power in Wisconsin, Arizona, and New Hampshire could be out of reach — particularly if Democrats cannot prevent the ballot roll-off and ticket splitting Democrats experienced in 2016 and 2020,” the memo read.
Meidas Touch: Democrats Lay Out What’s at Stake in State-Level Races in November
- Over the past decade, Republicans have avoided the negative effects of rolloff, with just 37% of their races impacted compared to the 80% of competitive races featuring Democrats down-ballot. The data clearly shows Democratic voters are more likely to only vote top of ticket while underperforming on candidates for state legislature.
- With or without Donald Trump in the White House, MAGA Republicans are preparing to roll back reproductive freedoms and LGBTQ Rights in state houses all over the country. DLCC is building a campaign to match the deep pocketed rapid response donor machine in the Republican party that has the ability to pump millions into state races overnight in response to the rise of strong down-ballot Democratic candidates.
Jake LaHut’s “Straight From the Hut”: Memo Shows a Down-Ballot Warning for Dems
- Tasked with building out the Democratic Party at the state-level, the DLCC is sounding the alarm around a niche industry term known as “ballot roll-off.”Ballot roll-off is when voters only vote for their preferences at the top of the ticket and don’t bother filling out the rest of the bubbles further down for local races.
- The bigger problem for the party, however, is in how much less this issue affects Republican-won seats in state legislatures. While around 80 percent of Democratic Party candidates were negatively affected by ballot drop-off in that Sister District study of 2012 to 2022, just 37 percent of Republicans were.
- Democrats could claw back at this trend of underperformance by doing just 1 percent better with ballot drop-off, according to the DLCC memo.
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